PharmPK Discussion - Quote of GEP Box

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On 20 Feb 2001 at 10:29:46, "Stephen Duffull" (sduffull.aaa.pharmacy.uq.edu.au) sent the message


The following message was posted to: PharmPK

For your collective information...

I have been trying to find the original reference for the
famous quote:
"All models are wrong but some are useful" GEP Box.

After searching around the PharmPK and other archives I
found several hits for this - most were wrong but some were
useful.  After interloaning numerous articles over the past
few weeks it seems that this statement is made in a number
of forms in various articles written by Box (although only 1
matching the exact wording given above).

The only version I have found to date is in:
Box GEP Robustness in the strategy of scientific model
building. In: Launer RL & Wilkinson GN Robustness in
Statistics. New York: Academic Press, 1979:pp. 202.

In this version it was a section heading in a chapter (in
capitals and underlined).

I hope this is of interest.

Cheers

Steve
==
Stephen Duffull
School of Pharmacy
University of Queensland
Brisbane, QLD 4072
Australia
Ph +61 7 3365 8808
Fax +61 7 3365 1688
http://www.uq.edu.au/pharmacy/duffull.htm

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On 20 Feb 2001 at 22:12:33, Pankaj Paranjpe (paranjpe.at.eden.rutgers.edu) sent the message


Dr. Duffull,

I came across the same quote-
"all models are wrong
some models are useful"

The quote was attributed to the famous Engineer-Statistician-W. Edwards
Deming in the reference where i read it (STELLA software's systems
thinking manual, HTS)

-Pankaj

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On 22 Feb 2001 at 21:43:29, Brennan & Co (brennan.at.ids.net) sent the message


The following message was posted to: PharmPK

Regarding the quote

"All models are wrong but some are useful"

     Isn't that a given?  Anyway, here's another quote:

"Models are like tools.  The more precise they become, the more useful
they can be.  The trick is to know what tool you need to create each
part of the model."

     You won't find that one on the web (at least I don't think you
will)  It was a comment made to be during a ship model making class.  I
was attempting to use the same modeling techniques that I used to build
a model of a dory to those needed to build a model of a Grand Banks
Schooner.

Think different!

         Bob

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